Short answer
A VRBO market analysis should help you choose two assumptions you can defend: average nightly rate and occupancy. Once you have those, the calculator can tell you whether the property still works after fees, debt, and expenses.
STR Numbers does not sell market data. Use this page as a research checklist, then use the VRBO Calculator to turn those assumptions into cash flow, ROI, cap rate, and break-even occupancy.
What to check first
Start with close comps
Look at properties with similar bedroom count, sleep count, amenities, location, and review quality. A citywide average is usually too broad.
Separate peak and slow seasons
Revenue in vacation markets can change sharply from month to month. Estimate peak, shoulder, and slow seasons separately instead of using one optimistic annual rate.
Check fees and turnover count
VRBO host fees, cleaning costs, and average stay length can change net income even when gross revenue looks strong.
Stress-test the downside
Run the deal with occupancy down 10 points and nightly rate down 10%. If it only works in the best case, treat that as a warning.
Good sources for VRBO assumptions
Use more than one source. A paid dashboard can help, but it does not replace what you know about the local market.
- Comparable listings. Similar homes on VRBO and Airbnb in the same neighborhood.
- Calendar behavior. How booked the closest comps look in peak and off-peak months.
- Local demand drivers. Beaches, ski seasons, school breaks, festivals, weddings, and conference calendars.
- Regulations. License rules, occupancy limits, tax collection, and HOA restrictions.
- Market-data tools. Rough ADR, occupancy, and revenue estimates, most useful when you compare several markets.
Check market data with AirDNA
Sponsored partner link. Use it for market research, then sanity-check the deal in STR Numbers.
How to turn market data into deal math
After you pick a realistic ADR and occupancy, do not stop at gross revenue. Add host fees, cleaning, taxes, insurance, utilities, maintenance, management, financing, and cash invested. Judge the deal on what is left after those costs.
If you are unsure, run three cases: conservative, base, and optimistic. A property with a lower base case and more room above break-even can be safer than one that needs near-full occupancy to cover its costs.
Model the market assumptions
Plug ADR, occupancy, fees, and expenses into the free VRBO Calculator.
Related guides
- VRBO rental income for the revenue formula.
- VRBO occupancy rate for occupancy benchmarks.
- VRBO host fees for platform-fee assumptions.
- AirDNA alternative for when to use STR Numbers versus a market-data tool.